Conclusion • Substantive Question ---> Statistical Question ---> Statistical Conclusion ---> Substantive Conclusion • Substantive Conclusion is a context-based conclusion
View full slide show




Syllogism Major premise (A) All men are mortal. Minor premise (B) Socrates is a man. Therefore, Socrates is mortal. Conclusion (C) If the major premise (A) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the minor premise (B) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the conclusion (C) does not necessarily follow from A and B, the conclusion is not valid.
View full slide show




Syllogism Major premise (A) All men eat spinach. Minor premise (B) Socrates is a man. Therefore, Socrates eats spinach. Conclusion (C) If the major premise (A) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the minor premise (B) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the conclusion (C) does not necessarily follow from A and B, the conclusion is not valid.
View full slide show




Syllogism Major premise (A) All cadets wear uniforms. Minor premise (B) Obama is a cadet. Therefore, Obama wears a uniform. Conclusion (C) If the major premise (A) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the minor premise (B) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the conclusion (C) does not necessarily follow from A and B, the conclusion is not valid.
View full slide show




Syllogism All men are mortal. My dog is mortal. Therefore, my dog is a man. Major premise (A) Minor premise (B) Conclusion (C) If the major premise (A) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the minor premise (B) is false, the conclusion is not valid. If the conclusion (C) does not necessarily follow from A and B, the conclusion is not valid.
View full slide show




The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 4. Conclusion  The conclusion in a hypothesis test is always a statement about the null hypothesis.  The conclusion must state either that we reject or that we fail to reject the null hypothesis.  And, as always, the conclusion should be stated in context. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1- 19
View full slide show




Evaluating Arguments from Analogy   Are the premises true? Are the similarities relevant?   The more relevant similarities there are, the better.    If Amber and Krissy are also tall and play both basketball and volleyball our conclusion is even further supported. The more diversity in the examples, the better.   Irrelevant dis-similarities: hair color Relevant dis-similarity: job status The more examples which are also similar, the better.   If we also learn that they both get scholarships if they play more than one sport, our conclusion is more supported. Are there relevant dis-similarities?   Since being tall is helpful in volleyball, the fact that both Tiffany and Heather are tall is relevant to the previous conclusion. If Tiffany, Amber and Krissy are different in many ways, except for the fact that they are all tall and play basketball and volleyball, it seems more likely that their being tall and playing basketball is relevant to their playing volleyball. Thus, Heather’s being tall and playing basketball is better evidence that she also plays volleyball. Is the conclusion too specific?  “Heather probably plays volleyball” is better supported than “Heather must play volleyball.” 28
View full slide show




Let’s make a proof  Prove that the premises P1, P2, and P3 imply the conclusion Q:      P1: Students who work hard will do well on the test. P2: Students who do well on the test and study will get an A. P3: Bill is a student who gets a B. Q: Bill either didn’t work hard or didn’t study. General problem-solving approach to proof construction: 1. Restate the problem, writing the premise and conclusion in mathematical language. 2. Decide what type of proof to use. 3. Apply any relevant definitions, axioms, laws, or theorems to simplify the premise, make it look more like the conclusion, or connect (relate) multiple premises. 4. Carefully write down and justify each step of the proof, in a sequence of connected steps. 5. Write a conclusion statement. 6. Write “Q.E.D.” or □. September1999 October 1999 5
View full slide show




Results vs. Conclusion • Experiments require writers to observe results and to draw conclusions from those observations. Observable results, however, are different from the conclusions drawn. • A result is simply what happened; a conclusion goes beyond what happened. A conclusion requires a scientist to draw an inference, to make a point about the results. • For example, Paul Broca measured women’s brains in the mid-1800’s. When he observed that they weighed an average of 181 grams less than a man’s brain, he wrongly concluded that smaller brains meant women were less intelligent than men. His observation, the result of his measurements, was correct. The brains did weigh less. But less weight doesn’t lead to the conclusion that women are not as smart. (Interesting note: What would he have concluded if he had known Einstein’s brain weighed nearly ½ pound less than the average man’s brain?)
View full slide show




Introductio Introductio n n Approach Approach Conclusion Method Method Results and and Results Discussion Discussion Conclusion Conclusion Conclusion `  In spatial events, CPs mostly express manner and path (semantic information), while simple verbs can also be neutral, or appear in existential, possessive, perception constructions (without specific information).  Simple verbs have been replaced by CPs at least in spatial events because:  CPs are semantically richer (more specific information)  CPs help to economize (lighter syntactic distribution)  Simple verbs mostly need adverbial clauses (to express specific information)  There is a balance between trans/intrans CPs  Simple verbs have lack of transitives 2 0
View full slide show




9 E JT The Conclusion a. If the decision is reject Ho, then the conclusion should be worded something like, “There is sufficient evidence at the  level of significance to show that . . . (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis)” b. If the decision is fail to reject Ho, then the conclusion should be worded something like, “There is not sufficient evidence at the  level of significance to show that . . . (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis)” Notes:  The decision is about Ho  The conclusion is a statement about Ha  There is always the chance of making an error 37
View full slide show




The Conclusion: a. If the decision is reject H0, then the conclusion should be worded something like, “There is sufficient evidence at the  level of significance to show that . . . (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis).” b. If the decision is fail to reject H0, then the conclusion should be worded something like, “There is not sufficient evidence at the  level of significance to show that . . . (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis).” Note: 1. The decision is about H0. 2. The conclusion is a statement about Ha. 3. There is always the chance of making an error.
View full slide show




Structure: CONCLUSION  CONCLUSION  reiterate your Thesis  reiterate your main points  “So What?!” O draw a conclusion O make a recommendation O make an argument
View full slide show




CONCLUSION  SIDE #3 ◦ Again, this paper is more REPORT than ARGUMENT:  your objective is to report on the 2 sides to the issue  fully, fairly, and objectively  your objective is not to “win” or “beat” your opponent (*)  since, then, the Body essentially summarizes the issue/debate, Side #3 at the end is a way of moving the issue forward  a conclusion to the Conclusion, if you will 17
View full slide show




CONCLUSION SIDE #3:  This paper is more REPORT than ARGUMENT: Your objective is to report on the 2 sides to the issue – fully, fairly, and objectively; your objective is not to “win” or “beat” your opponent. Since, then, the Body essentially summarizes the issue/debate, Side #3 at the end is a way of moving the issue forward – a conclusion to the Conclusion, if you will. 26
View full slide show




40 ABC (3) CONCLUSION: o Formats:  Conclusion Lists    list main points list findings, conclusions, recommendations, Conclusion Paragraph(s)   when lists are not appropriate paragraph or two
View full slide show




FAULTY REASONING * ERROR in REASONING:  Faulty INDUCTION    too big of a “leap” from the Specific to the General like Overgeneralization Faulty DEDUCTION       2 unrelated premises are asserted (but not proven) as true one premise may be untrue both premises may be true individually, but the combination of them does not necessarily yield validity (fact, certainty) Major Premise unrelated to the Conclusion is asserted (but not proven) as true Minor Premise (related or unrelated to the Conclusion) is asserted as true Conclusion is arbitrary, does not follow from/is not supported by the 8 premises
View full slide show




Valid Syllogisms • A syllogism consists of a set of statements called premises followed by a statement called a conclusion. • A syllogism is valid if whenever its premises are all true, then the conclusion is true. • If the conclusion can be false even though all the premises are true, then the syllogism is invalid. Copyright © 2014, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Section 3.5, Slide 3
View full slide show




 It is a POOR premise to think that Ann’s brother is always half her age. When Ann was 6 years old, this POOR premise leads you to a correct conclusion: her brother was 3 years old. But this is true only at a certain point in time.  The TRUE premise is to think that Ann’s brother is 3 years younger than her. Because when time passes, they gain same age. When Ann was 7, his brother was 4. Similarly, when Ann is 70, her brother will be 3 years younger and not half her age. Poor Premise (Half of Ann’s age) False Conclusion True Conclusion Good Premise (3-yearsyounger) 35 3 5
View full slide show




 But in order to be more precise about her brother’s age, we need to have more information. It is logical to think that Ann’s brother is 67 when Ann is 70 and it is based on a GOOD premise, however, lack of information might lead us to a wrong conclusion.  Suppose the first statement about Ann’s age being 6 years and her brother being half her age was true in December (64 years ago, when Ann was 6). If Ann was born in September and her brother was born in December and it is October now, then Ann is already 70 but her brother is still 66. He will be 67 only in December.  “…all of us at various times in our lives believe true things for poor reasons, and false things for good reasons…” (Allan Jacobs, ‘How to Think’ , page 39) This statement could apply to our views about politics, religion and even to the way we understand and solve some classroom assignments. Poor Premise (Half of Ann’s age) False Conclusion True Conclusion Good Premise (3-yearsyounger) 35 67 3 66 6
View full slide show




S = “Student behavior”, not “Conclusion” Below is list of “student behaviors” from objectives. Assess if behavior is truly a “specific student behavior” or a “conclusion”. If a conclusion, rewrite. Example: …students will understand the difference between a student behavior & a conclusion… This is a conclusion -- “understand” could be interpreted differently. Rewrite: “…students will label specific student behaviors & conclusions & will rewrite conclusions as specific student behaviors….” Let’s try a couple together. Specific student behavior or conclusion? 1. 2. …will print their first names using lower case letters and first letter capitalized… …will listen to the lecture on the solar system…
View full slide show




Rubric for Critical Thinking Activity TASK DESCRIPTION legalized. Each student will write an essay either for or against the following statement: Medical marijuana should be SCALE LEVELS Meets Criterion Fully (4) Meets Criterion Minimally (2) Does not Meet Criterion (0) Perspectiv e Explicitly acknowledges and develops other perspectives Acknowledges the fact that there are different perspectives Response is ignorant of other perspectives Analysis Explicitly “connects the dots” Sees that there are dots, but no coherency No dots; no connection Vocabular y Recognizes and explains relevant concepts Recognizes relevant concepts, but does not clearly explain them No articulation of relevant concepts Judgment States conclusion with supporting evidence States conclusion, but evidence not fully developed Does not really come to a final conclusion D I M E N S I O N S -- Adapted from Dr. Gerald Mozur, Lewis and Clark College.
View full slide show




EXAMPLE: ANALYTIC RUBRIC legalized. Each student will write an essay either for or against the following statement: Medical marijuana should be Meets Criterion Fully (4) Meets Criterion Minimally (2) Does not Meet Criterion (0) Perspectiv e Explicitly acknowledges and develops other perspectives Acknowledges the fact that there are different perspectives Response is ignorant of other perspectives Analysis Explicitly “connects the dots” Sees that there are dots, but no coherency No dots; no connection Vocabular y Recognizes and explains relevant concepts Recognizes relevant concepts, but does not clearly explain them No articulation of relevant concepts Judgment States conclusion with supporting evidence States conclusion, but evidence not fully developed Does not really come to a final conclusion -- Adapted from Dr. Gerald Mozur, Lewis and Clark College.
View full slide show




chapter 7 Formal Reasoning Information needed to draw a conclusion is available You must find the right (or best) answer Algorithms: A set of instructions for accomplishing a task that produces a solution Don’t need to understand how/why it works - recipe for baking bread - how to solve a math problem - how to calculate molarity (chemistry) Formal Logic: Deductive reasoning: provide complete support for a conclusion Inductive reasoning: provide some, but not complete support for a conclusion
View full slide show




Converting Decision to Conclusion     Conclusion if Decision is Reject Ho: Conclusion if Decision is Fail to Reject Ho: “There is insufficient evidence to conclude” 52
View full slide show




Conclusions • Your conclusion should have two overall goals: – Reinforce your thesis – Give a sense of completeness to your essay • Do not introduce material in your conclusion that affects your recommendation. Judgements about this material should appear in the evaluation part of your essay before the conclusion, and the material in the evaluation part of the essay should be presented earlier in the essay.
View full slide show




Conclusions • Your conclusion should restate your thesis in a way that is made possible by the points of your essay. Your concluding thesis will probably be slightly longer than the thesis of your introduction. • Your conclusion should give a sense of completeness to your essay. • Your conclusion should reinforce your thesis.
View full slide show




Conclusions • Do not introduce material in your conclusion that will distract from your thesis. • Do not introduce material in your conclusion that is essential to your thesis. That material should be in the body of your essay. • Do not introduce objections or limitations in your conclusion. If it is necessary to explicitly discuss objections or limitations then discuss them in the body of your essay.
View full slide show




Conclusions • Your conclusion should have two overall goals: – Reinforce your thesis – Give a sense of completeness to your essay • Do not introduce material in your conclusion that affects your recommendation. This material should appear in the evaluation part of your essay immediately before the conclusion.
View full slide show




Terminology Recap    A strong argument has premises that provide evidence that its conclusion is more likely true than false. A strong and reliable argument has premises that provide evidence that its conclusion is more likely true than false, and it is an argument that a reasonable person would act or bet on. A strong but unreliable argument has premises that provide evidence that its conclusion is more likely true than false, but it is an argument that a reasonable person would not act or bet on. 16
View full slide show




Conclusion (Select appropriate conclusion based upon Conclusion Assessment) (Ensure font consistency between slides) Internal controls are effective in mitigating the risks specific to the achievement of business objectives. We have reviewed the results with (identify the person you reviewed or area management Identify person). OR Internal controls are effective in mitigating the risks specific to the achievement of business objectives with a few minor exceptions. However, opportunities for control enhancement were identified, as previously noted. We have reviewed the results with (identify the person you reviewed or area management) and a management action plan has been developed to address the issue identified during the review. OR Internal controls are effective in mitigating the risks specific to the achievement of business objectives except for the methods used for performing follow-up on compliance issues. We have reviewed the results with (identify the person you reviewed or area management) and a management action plan has been developed to address the issue identified during the review. OR Internal controls associated with the methods used for performing follow-up on compliance issues need improvement in order to bring the control environment to an effective level in mitigating the risks specific to the achievement of business objectives. We have reviewed the results with (identify the person you reviewed or area management) and a management action plan has been developed to address the issue identified during the review. OR Internal controls are ineffective in mitigating the risks specific to the achievement of business objectives as previously noted. We have reviewed the results with (identify the person you reviewed or area management) and a management action plan has been developed to address the issue identified during the review. 5
View full slide show




Interviews • How to Conduct an Interview (Cont’d) • The interview conclusion: – During the interview conclusion, you should express your appreciation and provide answers to any questions posed by the interviewee. » The conclusion is very important for maintaining rapport and trust with the interviewee. • The importance of human relations skills in interviewing cannot be overemphasized. Source: Systems Analysis & Design Methods, 4ed, Whitten & Bentley 03/19/19 Management-386 53
View full slide show




Arguments Just like a rule of inference, an argument consists of one or more hypotheses and a conclusion. We say that an argument is valid, if whenever all its hypotheses are true, its conclusion is also true. However, if any hypothesis is false, even a valid argument can lead to an incorrect conclusion. CMSC 203 - Discrete Structures 8
View full slide show